Tuesday, October 03, 2000

The OPEC that I want to see

Towards the end of 1980, oil of optimum grade such as Arabian Light was being sold at US$ 36 per barrel. By the end of 1998, its price had fallen to US$ 12.20. The latter is equivalent to US$ 6.50 in 1980 US dollar terms, and represents only 18% of its value in 1980. This would seem to imply that whatever the strategy was that OPEC used to defend its oil was simply dead wrong.

This situation was so disastrous that at the end of 1998 the only alternatives that were ventilated publicly were either to violently increase production capacity or to simply sell or privatize the entire industry.

To limit oneself to the simple increase in production capacity would be to repeat the same errors that were committed with the other raw materials and natural non-renewable resources. It would mean to resign oneself to receiving the marginal contribution that results from being the sector’s low cost producer. It is sad that a country that has been so blessed with a valuable resource such as oil has to adopt a model that, at the end of the day, would let it to sell it at the variable cost of production. Something like receiving a valuable family inheritance and then turning around and selling it for what it costs to wrap it and ship it to the buyer.

In the same vein, the outright privatization of the oil sector would eliminate all possibility of geopolitic negotiation and the only thing we would receive as a going away present would be the resources to solve the existential problems of an entire generation of Venezuelans that have, for the last 20 years, not been able to decide if they were coming or going and that lived in a sort of Limbo State in the duty free zone of our international airport.

Today, when OPEC, for well know reasons (albeit not well recognized reasons) has received a new lease on life, it would be naughty not to wish it success in taking advantage of this second wind to build itself into a solid organization capable of facing the new challenges. If it fails, this will surely be its last breath. This is why I wish to share with you what I would consider the OPEC I want.

The OPEC I want would be able to win the confidence of all of its members in order to consolidate in one single block all the resources necessary to really defend it oil. These resources go far and beyond the simple turning of the tap.

The OPEC I want would be one that, upon observing how consumer nations have usurped the value of oil by increasing taxes (the UK, for example, increased taxes from 85% in 1980 to 456% ad valorem in 1998), would humbly accept the fact that they have lost the battle to an able opponent, but is now regrouping in order to win the war.

The OPEC I want would train the world’s100 best environmentalists in order to insure that, even though it shares the conviction and responsibility of taking care of our fragile world, the costs of defending the latter would not be laid squarely and unjustly on oil’s shoulders and that the environmentalist’s arguments will not be used for other hypocritical ends.

The OPEC I want would train the world’s 100 best experts in international commerce who would help avoid measures like direct subsidies for carbon as well as taxes that are aimed directly at oil and not at other sources of energy and that are evidently discriminatory and therefore not permitted under the norms established by the World Trade Organization.

The OPEC I want would train the world’s 1000 best scientists who would work in the world’s best laboratories and study, research and develop new uses for oil in order to minimize pollution or maximize added value as well as alternate sources of energy that could be used in the future.

The OPEC I want would not recognize the rights to intellectual property, brands and patents that, like a rabbit pulled out of a hat, generate income for the countries that own these rights which are definitely renewable, while the income obtained from the sale of a non-renewable natural resource such as oil is simultaneously being treated in a discriminatory fashion.

The OPEC I want simply would not allow a company to abscond with a hefty portion of the value of oil because it has formulated an additive that (supposedly) permits gasoline to be less polluting and based on a process that has dubiously been patented.

The OPEC I want would train the best image and marketing advisors in order to insure that the world’s public opinion does not continuously receive distorted information about OPEC and its members.

The OPEC I want would be staffed with the best team of diplomats and negotiators that would insure adequate representation at all international forums.

The OPEC I want would not allow gas and other sources of energy who’s values are not set under the OPEC umbrella to be introduced into the market like Trojan horses in order to compete with oil.

The OPEC I want knows that it counts with other resources other than oil to defend itself. The mere addition of all its international purchasing power would allow it to receive better treatment by imposing uniform special duties on all those who discriminate against oil.

The OPEC I want would not be formed by managers that think that their only objective is to perform comfortable bureaucratic tasks, but rather by soldiers that know and accept that they are on a mission aimed at improving the lot of their nations and that borders on being sacred.

The OPEC I want knows that it is not totally unimportant and is able to rally the solid support of its members and above all, of the population of its member countries.

The citizens of countries belonging to the OPEC I want know that even though their happiness and well being does not depend only on oil, it does depend on being able to defend what is theirs.

In the OPEC I want everyone prays to his respective God to give them strength to take full advantage of the meeting in Caracas.

Caracas, Venezuela, Daily Journal, September 2000

Originally published in Spanish in El Universal, Caracas, Venezuela August 26, 2000



Thursday, March 30, 2000

Human genetics made inhuman

Lately world leaders have issued statements labeling research into the human genetic blueprint as “one of the most significant scientific projects of all time.” They have also suggested that “to realize the full promise of the research, raw fundamental data on the human genome including the human DNA sequence and its variations should be made freely available to scientists everywhere.”

As of this moment, all I have read about the mapping of human genes has been so upsetting that it only brings to mind the title of the musical Stop the World, I Want to Get Off. I am very far from making my mind up about this difficult issue, but I need to share some of my initial concerns with as many people as possible.

A report cited in Reuters from the Daily Telegraph, London, indicates that “the government plans to allow insurance companies to use DNA testing to assess whether people are at risk of inheriting serious illness and should pay higher premiums.”

I believe strongly in the importance of the market as a means for the distribution of resources in society. However, I also believe that the benefits of development should accrue to all, not leaving any behind. What we now seem to be able to accomplish with research on the human genome multiplies manifold the difficulties of harmonizing these two previously contradicting objectives.

For instance, it would be great if genetics allowed the insurance companies to decide who will pay lower premiums, that is, those with less risk of developing serious illness. However, who will be responsible for those declared genetically second-class citizens, who will be forced to pay double or triple the premium, or who will ultimately be turned down altogether?

This problem is not limited to insurance. Reuters also reported on a conference to be held in mid-April in the United Kingdom in which “Genetic testing of children and testing for physical and social characteristics, as well as medical traits, would be high on the agenda.” Does this imply the possibility that even access to the university will some day be determined in part by genetic analysis?

What would parents who today limit their background search to asking their children who their friends’ parents are do tomorrow? Would they be obliged to ask about their genetic charts? The potential for discrimination is great, and would only reinforce the motivations of overly twisted Darwinists.

This genetic investigation might also represent a serious commercial threat for those countries that are not participating in this area. One of the companies racing to use information from gene mapping to make profits declared that it had hooked up with a center to find genes associated with breast cancer. If the efforts of this company are successful, it will be sitting on a patentable product and would be in a position to become a monopolist in a market with very inelastic demand. Can rationality be guaranteed within the openly declared and not unreasonable intention to obtain profit from the venture?

Many countries have signed commercial agreements that obligate them to respect patents to the extent of having to collaborate with other countries and punish unlawful use of protected discoveries. In the future, advancements in genetic science may force the revision of these accords, to decide whether they are still valid or whether, on the other hand and for the good of the common citizen, they should just look the other way.

What to do? It is very hard to say. Today, and just out of practical considerations, I limit myself to suggesting that all insurance companies design a plan which obligates them to issue policies for all of those who undertake a genetic examination. This policy should cover the negative impact and consequence that could arise from anyone getting access to such information.

I know this is only a Band-Aid, but what else can I do? I am not among those that resign and lie down to cry, even though this matter actually would justify just that.

From The Daily Journal, Caracas, March 2000
From Voice and Noise, Booksurge 2006
Traducción:
Genes humanos hechos inhumanos

A mediados de Marzo el Presidente Clinton y el Primer Ministro Tony Blair declararon in a joint statement que research into human genetic blueprint was "one of the most significant scientific projects of all time." Sugirieron también que "To realize full promise of the research, raw fundamental data on the human genome including the human DNA sequence and its variations, should be made freely available to scientist everywhere." Sonaba maravilloso.

Desde ese momento solo he leido sobre aspectos relacionados con el mapeo de los genes humanos, tan perturbadores,.que a cada momento me recuerda el titulo del musical, Stop the world I want to get off. En la materia me encuentro muy lejos de encontrar una posición pero la angustia que me crea, me obliga a compartirla con muchos.

Lo peor fue un reporte de Reuters en el cual, citando como fuente al Daily Telegraph de Inglaterra, se indica "The government plans to allow insurance companies to use DNA testing to assess whether people are at risk of inheriting serious illnesses and should pay higher premiums."

Para alguien que como yo cree tanto en la importancia del mercado como mecanismo de asignación de recursos en la sociedad, como en la necesidad, objetiva y moral, que el desarrollo no solo alcance una parte de la población, y deje rezagada a la otra, las posibilidades que visualize, multiplicaron por mil las dificultades de harmonizar entre los dos algo contradictorios objetivos.

Que bueno si la genetica permite cobrar una prima mas baja a quién no esta predispuesto a ciertas enfermedades, pero, quién se responzabiliza por el que resulte declarado ciudadano geneticamente de segunda y a quién le exigiran el pago doble, triple, o simplemente le rechazaran una cobertura.

Lo anterior no se limita a seguros. La Reuter reporta también sobre una conferencias a mediados de Abril en Inglaterra y en la cual "Genetic testing of children and testing for physical and social characteristics, as well as  medical traits, would also be high on the agenda." - lo cual dibuja en el horizonte la posibilidad de que hasta el acceso a las universidades se determine por analisis  genetico.

Los padres madres quienes hoy con toda normalidad le preguntan a sus hijos sobre quienes son los padres de sus amigos, qué harán mañana? Estarán en la obligación de preguntar sobre la carta genetica?

Aparte de su potencial discriminatorio - que solo puede reforzar los argumentos de aquellos genéticamente desviados Darwinistas que buscan la raza suprema, la investigacion genetica también presenta una profunda amenaza comercial para los paises que hoy no tienen una presencia en esta area de la economia.

Las primeras reacciones a las declaraciones de Clinto y Blair por parte del mercado financiero de empresas y laboratorios dedicado a la ciencia genetica fue negativa - se abre el mercado y se impide el monopolio. A los pocos dias la Casa Blanca declaraba "The whole point of this is to make raw data available so private companies can innovate, create new medicine and treatment and make a profit." y las aguas volvieron a su cause.

Lo anterior plantea inmensos retos regulativos. Por ejemplo, Celera Genomics, one of the companies racing to use information from gene mapping to make profits, said on Monday it had hooked up with a center to find genes associated with breast cancer. Si los esfuerzos de tal empresa son exitosos obtendra un producto curativo y patentable, y se ubicara  como monopolista en un mercado con una demanda inelastica. Como se garantiza la razonabilidad en la declarada y nada equivocada intención de obtener una ganancia.

Un pais como Venezuela, ha firmado acuerdos comerciales que hoy lo obligan a respetar las patentes, hasta el grado de colaborar y perseguir el uso ilegitimo de estos. En un futuro, el desarrollo genético puede obligar a revisar estos acuerdos, para decidir si se siguen honrando o si, por el contrario, para el bien de sus ciudadanos,  debe hacerse la vista gorda.

Las reacciones emotivas que el tema produce, inspira escribir. Hoy termino proponiendo que las empresa de seguro, de inmediato diseñen un seguro, de caracter obligatorio para todo quien se haga un examen genetico, y que cubra las consecuencias negativas que se puedan derivar de poseer tal informacion.

Reconozco que lo anterior solo es un pañito caliente, pero qué hago. No soy de los que renuncio y me hecho a llorar - aun cuando en este caso si provoca.